China’s Exports Surge as Global Demand Remains Strong, But Trade Tensions Loom

China’s exports surged by 12.7% in October, marking the fastest growth in over two years and outpacing analyst expectations of just 5.5% growth. The spike was fueled by strong demand for Chinese goods across major markets, with exports to Russia soaring by almost 27%, shipments to the EU up nearly 13%, and exports to the U.S. climbing 8% year-on-year. However, import demand within China remains tepid, with imports dipping by 2.3%, leading to a record trade surplus of $95.7 billion.

This growth comes as former President Donald Trump won a second term, pledging to hike tariffs on Chinese goods to 60%. Economists expect that while these tariffs would eventually weigh on Chinese exports, their impact might not hit until the latter half of 2025. In fact, the immediate effect could be a short-term boost in exports as U.S. buyers rush to secure orders before tariffs take effect.

Meanwhile, China’s manufacturing sector also saw signs of recovery in October, expanding for the first time in months, as policymakers in Beijing prepare to roll out additional economic stimulus measures to counter deflation and sluggish consumer spending.

For now, China’s export sector remains resilient, but uncertainties tied to global tariffs and a slowdown in property investment keep the economic outlook mixed.