Cash flow forecast

Lena Carter’s New Café Venture 

Lena Carter is opening a small café specializing in organic pastries and specialty coffee. She understands that managing cash flow is essential to avoid financial difficulties, so she prepares a cash flow forecast to identify potential issues in the first four months of business (June – September).

Lena has secured $75,000 from a bank loan and personal savings to fund the business, and this amount will be available in June.

  • The café lease costs $30,000, which must be paid upfront in June.
  • Lena expects an opening cash balance of $2,000 at the start of June.
  • She anticipates steady increases in daily sales as customers become more familiar with the café. Her forecasted monthly cash sales are $5,750, $7,500, $8,475, and $9,215 for June to September.
  • Additionally, a local event catering company has placed an order worth $10,000 for custom pastries, but they will only pay in September. Lena will need to purchase the ingredients in June to fulfill this order.
  • Each month, Lena restocks ingredients and café supplies. The forecasted costs for these purchases are $59,000, $4,500, $5,000, and $6,100 for June to September. June’s costs are higher as Lena must stockpile essential ingredients and buy supplies for the catering order.
  • Lena must pay wages for herself and a part-time barista, costing $1,500 per month.
  • Other operating expenses (rent, utilities, and maintenance) are $1,500 in June and July but slightly increase to $1,605 in August and $1,630 in September.
  • Marketing expenses for promotions, social media ads, and flyers are $2,500 in June, $1,500 in July, $975 in August, and $400 in September to attract customers.

Task 1: Constructing the Cash Flow Forecast

  1. Using the financial details provided in the case study, complete a cash flow forecast for June to September.
  2. What trend do you notice in the café’s cash inflows over the four months?
  3. Which month has the worst cash flow? Why?
  4. Does Lena ever face a cash flow shortage? If so, when and how much?

Task 2: Interpreting the Cash Flow Forecast

Now that you have constructed the cash flow forecast, answer the following:

  1. Cash Flow Problems
  • Which month has a negative net cash flow?
  • What does this tell us about the café’s financial health?
  • What potential risks might Lena face if this pattern continues?
  1. Liquidity Issues
  • The closing balance is negative at some points. What might this mean for day-to-day operations?
  • How could Lena handle these cash flow shortages in the short term?
  1. Improving Cash Flow
    Suggest three strategies Lena could use to improve her cash flow situation.
  2. Long-Term Financial Planning
    If Lena wants to expand her café in six months, what steps should she take now to ensure she has the financial stability to do so?