The Bank of England has lowered interest rates to 4%, the fifth cut since August last year and the lowest level since early 2023, in a move aimed at giving the UK economy a much-needed boost.
The decision — which followed a rare second vote by the Monetary Policy Committee — reflects growing concern over sluggish economic growth and rising unemployment, even as inflation remains above the 2% target. Inflation is now forecast to peak at 4% in September, far higher than expected just a few months ago.
So why cut rates when inflation is still high?
Lower interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing for households and firms. This encourages consumer spending and business investment — both key components of aggregate demand (AD). At the same time, falling rates tend to reduce the incentive to save, increasing the flow of money in the economy. This rise in AD should help boost economic growth — a key objective of monetary policy.
However, it’s a fine balance. Cutting rates too soon risks fueling inflation, but waiting too long may cause further economic slowdown and job losses. The Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, admitted the decision was “finely balanced” and hinted that future cuts would be “gradual and careful”.
Firms told the Bank that higher wages, rising national insurance costs, and poor global harvests were all contributing to higher prices — especially for food. As a result, consumers are trading down to cheaper products and companies are cutting staff to manage costs.
Still, signs of weakening demand — with job vacancies falling and wage growth slowing — suggest inflation may not stay high for long. This explains why the Bank believes rates can now head downward.
At 4%, many borrowers, especially those on tracker mortgages, will feel some relief. A £250,000 loan on a standard variable rate could be £40 cheaper per month, according to Moneyfacts. But not everyone benefits equally — savers and those remortgaging at higher fixed rates may still feel squeezed.
For IB Economics students, this story brings key macroeconomic themes to life: how interest rates affect aggregate demand, why inflation vs. growth presents a policy trade-off, and the role of monetary policy in stabilising the economy. It’s also a perfect example of how central banks respond to real-world economic data to achieve their dual objectives: price stability and sustainable growth.